Timing is everything in F1 betting. You might spot the right driver to win, but...

https://delta-wiki.win/index.php/Is_Betting_the_Favourite_in_F1_Ever_Worth_It%3F

Timing is everything in F1 betting. You might spot the right driver to win, but if the odds shift from +500 down to +190 before you place your bet, that winner pick turns into a weaker payout